The Forgotten Americans of Trump’s Trade War

The “Forgotten Man” became a leitmotif in the political mythology of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal. It has persisted through the decades, now finding a place in the rhetoric of President Donald Trump, for one. However, this usage inverts the original meaning of the term, coined by economist William Graham Sumner. According to Roosevelt and Trump, the Forgotten Man is the American whom the federal government neglected to shower with fiscal or regulatory largesse. In Sumner’s formula, however, the Forgotten Man is not the beneficiary, but the American who finds himself forced to bear the cost (seen or unseen), of the government’s largesse. “He is the simple, honest laborer, ready to earn his living by productive work,” Sumner explained. He is, moreover, “the victim of the reformer, social speculator and philanthropist.”

This holiday season, many Americans have been forgotten by the Trump administration and its protectionism. On so-called Liberation Day, the White House declared the imposition of the highest tariff rates in living memory (which have since been reduced) necessary to “protect American workers.” No responsible free marketeer has ever contended that high tariff rates cannot preserve jobs that otherwise, if left exposed to the forces of the market, would disappear. However, the jobs taken by protectionism far outnumber those saved by it. The Trump administration has much to answer for as newly out-of-work Americans make the best of Christmas with their families, without paychecks to fund the purchase of presents for their children—presents whose prices have increased due to the same policies.

The Kansas City Fed reports that “jobs in sectors with higher import exposure grew more slowly than jobs in sectors with lower import exposure,” amounting to 19,000 fewer jobs per month. As the famed economist Thomas Sowell posited, there are no solutions, only tradeoffs. Like a general forfeiting the bulk of his forces in an assault for meager gains, the Trump administration may have succeeded in “saving” some American jobs, but it has sacrificed far more in the attempt.

The Wall Street Journal editorial board notes that, in manufacturing (the sector over which protectionists fret the most) the number of jobs increased from the beginning of the year until April, “but then began to fall each month and in November hit 12,697,000.” This hollowing out reached “a net loss of 58,000 jobs, including 19,000 in the last three months.” And as noted by Jon Murphy, writing at Econlib, since the initiation of the Trump administration’s protectionist offensive, “there are approximately 130,000 fewer job openings in manufacturing since the tariffs were imposed than before.”

More than half of goods imported are not finished goods but intermediate goods, which American businesses incorporate into their own products. In the face of rising input expenses, employers have found it necessary to economize, including on labor. As of December 5, the federal government’s tariff revenues have come to $259 billion, extracted primarily from Americans. Given the enormity of this figure, it is small wonder that American businesses have felt it necessary to reduce their workforces.

For small businesses in particular, Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back together again. Even should the federal government be dealt an adverse ruling by the Supreme Court, and consequently refund $170 billion in tariff revenues illegally collected, the status quo ante will not be restored. “Small businesses don’t have more than a 30-day cash reserve,” one small businessperson said. “Reimbursement at this point doesn’t make up for the disruption of staff cuts or hiring we could have made. The damage has already been done.” American industry, and the workers whose employment American companies have terminated, cannot simply be made whole by a refund.

The Economist has labeled Trump “President Grinch” for the Christmas gloom for which his protectionism is responsible. Democrats on the U.S. Congressional Joint Economic Committee found “that in just 10 months the average American family has already paid nearly $1,200 in tariff costs, with the costs climbing steadily since the beginning of President Trump’s second term.” One recent survey found that “45% [of respondents] plan to give fewer gifts this year due to tariffs. Additionally, 46% say gift prices have ruined the holidays for them, led by Gen Zers (57%).”

Promises of an American Golden Age mean little to American families whose breadwinners are now unemployed and, in real terms, poorer. These are the true Forgotten Men and Women of Christmas 2025.